Ground State

Imagine for a moment you're in Iraq, you live there, you have kids, you want to believe they can have a future other than the relentless butchery. So you signed up for the Iraqi national police force, at substantial personal risk. You cast your vote, literally, twice. You accept the real risks to you and your family for a better future. There are thousands of Iraqis like this.

Now you see the dissolving American interest in the project. CNN, Al-Jazeera, they tell you every day, Bush is neutered. Muqtada Al-Sadr takes over Baghdad TV and parliament members show up: not to take it back, but to support him. They've picked sides - they're not with the national government, and they are parliament members.

What do you do? Well, if the parliament members don't believe, and the Americans are going - you better get back to your tribe, in the hope that it will afford you some protection in the coming massacre. Equivocation of the American will has guaranteed the failure. There will be no more "real" recruiting into the Iraqi police force. There may be recruits, they may take a salary, training, a rifle - but they will not kid themselves that their is any hope for an Iraqi democracy. It's been suffocated in the cradle. It cannot withstand full-spectrum war from Iran, and the Americans will not use the force necessary to stop Iran.

We have no respect in the world now. We're Iran's bitch. Egypt and Saudi Arabia will accelerate nuclear arms development as the only possible counter to Iran. Who can argue with Nasrallah? His vision of America is that the Blackhawks will be pulling the last American out of the Green Zone, just like the Hueys pulled them off the embassy in Viet Nam. He's right. We have the best equipment in the world. We have the best-trained, most effective, most aggressive soldiers in the world. American soldiers make British Generals pee their pants. What we lack is the national will to win a war. If Maliki survives, it will only be as an Iranian puppet. Nasrallah will be the ruler of Lebanon in a matter of months.

I find it a bit distasteful to hear American politicians, like Governor Pataki, chastizing Prime Minister Maliki for failing to secure his borders or quell the violence. We live in a glass house over here. We cannot secure American borders. Washington D.C. is less safe than the Green Zone. What honestly, did the Governor expect? Now we point fingers as P.M. Maliki to cover-up our own failure. A failure to deal with Iran, and a failure to lead America.

Half-measures. The realists will give us a 'regional conference' with Syria and Iran. A conference? How about a bullet? We should have killed Assad a year ago. We should have killed AhWantMyJihad when he took our embassy and kidnapped Americans. This is worse than doing nothing. We'd have been better off sitting at home waiting for the next 9/11. This is my America, choosing to lose.

There's an interesting challenge and response to Mark Steyn's demographic calculus on Powerline. I hesitate to call it a debate - more like an ill-thought out assertion followed-up by a slice & dice from M. Steyn. It's interesting. I was going to comment - but my point has already been made in the Powerline comments by Anton K. (see #44):

James Taranto of the Opinion Journal’s Best of the Web comments today:

Think about this: Peters is predicting a rebirth of European fascism, possibly including genocide--and he’s the optimist of this pair.

Ha!

Anton

That's indeed the nub of it - the Polyannish view of the European future - one in which there is still a recognizable Europe - requires mass deportations or Yugoslavia redux. Europe can survive if they accept Slobodan Milošević as their role model.

Victor Davis Hanson has been one of the links on the blogroll since I started this blog, but I've changed the pointer to his blog from his older Private Papers site. The blog has more extemporaneous entries; both sites are worth reading.

It is a hopeful sign for the West that a historian of Professor Hanson's quality and focus has become a recognized and sought-out commentator in these times. What first called him to my attention was a CSPAN Booknotes appearance on his then newly issued Carnage and Culture. He was on Booknotes very shortly after 9/11. The normal Q&A period following the presentation turned immediately from the book to the outlook for the West in the newly recognized conflict. I was reassured by his confidence in the West's ability to wage and win the war.

The flip-side to the reassurance I got from that appearance is that a vote of no-confidence from Professor Hanson on the outlook for the West would leave me pretty well shaken. He's run that flag some ways up the pole on occasion - noting at one point that the West doesn't seem to realize that civilization can be lost in a single generation. In that regard, Professor Hanson is not reassured by the return of the 'realists':

No, no, no….

The problems in Iraq, in the radical Middle East at large—with democratization, with nuclearization, with Islamism—are not, repeat not, a lack of dialogue with Syria and Iran.

We know what both rogue states wish and it is our exit from the Middle East and thus a free hand to undermine the newly established democracies of Lebanon and Iraq—in the manner that all autocracies must destroy their antitheses.

They both sponsor and harbor terrorists for a reason—to undermine anything Western: a Western-leaning Lebanese democracy, a Western-style democracy in Iraq, a Westernized Israel, or soldiers of the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Syria, as we see once again with the killing of Pierre Gemayel, is practicing serial murdering in Lebanon. I was on the Hugh Hewitt show last night, and he was right to make the point that Syria is like the Nazi regime of the late 1930s that sent its agents into Eastern Europe and Austria to assassinate and undermine republican leaders, to pave the way for the ‘necessary’ and ‘welcome’ entrance of the order-bringing Wehrmacht into a ‘brother’ state.

Iran is a rogue nation that seeks bombs to use them against the region’s only viable democracy in Israel. Neither Damascus nor Teheran can tolerate a democratic Iraq—no more than the Soviet Union would have allowed the Baltic Republics to have pro-Western democracies or Nazi Germany wished to be a partner in peace with republican Czechoslovakia.

Yes, yes, we need perhaps to have a national “dialogue”, but not over talking to Iran and Syria—but instead whether we wish to continue to fight and win this war.

We would do well to pay attention. We'll pay dearly for bowing to expedience now.

The magnitude of the failure we're signing up for in Iraq is tectonic. Now that the uber-realist has declared defeat for America, we go hat in hand to beg Syria and Iran not to make us look too bad on the way out. The only thing more ridiculous than having the EU-3 & the US offer Iran turn-key nuclear reactors is to pretend Iran and Syria would like to discuss peace, freedom, and supporting the new democracy in Iraq. We are calling our own surrender conference. Iran and Syria will be dividing up Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel, and we'll sign-off on it.

President Bush has had many successes, but he will be remembered as a failure because of this exit. It's no good for the Democrats either. After throwing stones for four years, doing their very best to make sure this war was lost the only place it could be - they have accomplished their mission. What do they say now? See - we were right - America's a loser - vote for us!

The failure of 'liberals' and 'feminists' to support a single liberal or feminist value outside of the US is shameful. In the face of a resurgent Islam that treats women as chattel; rapes and slaughters Christians, Jews, Buddhists, and other Muslims the world over; the Democrats found the face of true evil, Dick Cheney (his daughter's a lesbian).

It's going to be bad for us in America, but it's going to be alot worse elsewhere sooner. Israel's Olmert still talks about their victory in Lebanon and their confidence in the US preventing Iran from going nuclear. He's not in the real-world any longer. James Baker is trading the Golan Heights for a little PR help from Syria. Hezbollah will be delivering warheads into Israel by rolling oxcarts down the hill.

Ambassador Bolton is to be sent home with a scolding from Chuck Schumer, and we'll plug-in a guy who plays better with others. At the UN, that means joining the crowd screaming at every attempt by Israel to prevent themselves from being bled to death.

There's alot of Iraqis who would have been better off if they'd never met an American. We're signing their death warrants. But this is not a new trick for us.

President Bush would like some help from his good friend Putin, but Putin is busy. He has weapons to sell, people to poison.

Europe - comfortable in its own demise, was a little put-out that America kept pretending they could move forward with this civilization thing. They'll be glad to see we've joined their ranks. Watching the rise of the atomic Imam's, and pretending it'll be OK.

So - in the modern fashion - having decided we don't want this pregnancy, we're aborting it. But the monster is still growing.

Reuters reports "Al Qaeda gloats over Rumsfeld". By your enemies we know you, Mr. Secretary. Those who slaughter innocent civilians by design and will continue to do so until we abandon everything America is and submit to Islam - these animals think you were their greatest foe. When they count the men who stood up for civilization over barbarism, they will not have to go down the list very far to find your name.

I believe you gave this country the best of your intellect, stamina, courage, and experience, and that you have all four of these in abnormal quantity. You spoke with clarity in a time when most civilized men seem unable to do so. We are less able as a country without you as Secretary of Defense.

So I hope you have a nice vacation - and then find a way to get back in the fight - because America still needs you.

Let's see, the last time the 'realists' were running our foreign policy we left Saddam Hussein in power to massacre the Kurds and Shia with chemical weapons. I hope the Iraqis hang him soon - otherwise we'll be reinstalling him as part of our redeployment strategy.

God help us.

Surely you haven't had enough election predictions! So here's another - Republicans lose seats, but retain control of both houses of Congress.

The bloggers - not me - the real bloggers - are consuming major media. I know dozens of people who read LGF every day. I have one neighbor who holds out and reads the LA Times. Michelle Malkin will be on Fox News tomorrow. Captain Ed will be on CNN. I won't see either of them. I'll watch the election on the Truth Laid Bear - not TV.

So what? Well, in parallel with discarding the MSM, we are discarding polls. No one believes them. They are used to discourage people from voting. They have been doing it for years - but now 10's of millions of people realize it. The walls have fallen in around pollsters - just as they did around Dan Rather. They're not honest brokers. No one believes they are.

Well again - so what? Here's why that matters. There is zero chance I will ever watch the CBS evening news - and there is zero chance I'll ever respond to a pollster. I am completely blacked-out until Tuesday night - zero radar cross-section.

I think there's alot of us. I think there are more than anyone realizes. I think John Kerry woke us up. I am pretty much disgusted with the Republican leadership. Republicans disappoint me. John Kerry scares me.

So I predict Republicans retain both the House and the Senate, and the Democrats and the MSM go ballistic about voter fraud. And there will surely be massive voter fraud since the Democrats and the judges block most attempts to check a real ID at the polls - but the fraud will be the Democrats trying to save their burning house.

That is why I think John Kerry's "joke" swings the election. We are reminded of the stakes. We hold our nose, and vote Republican, because the leading lights of the Democratic party want us to lose. They think its chic - Euro - cool - sophisticated. Republicans will mismanage the fight for civilization, Democrats will declare there is no fight - let's get on with carbon emissions.

Jules Crittenden of the Boston Herald wrote a very funny piece about Massachusetts taking one for the team by sending in the clowns. But it's not quite right. The Republicans are the clowns. John Kerry, Al Gore, Russ Feingold - these men are not funny - they're very serious - fanatically serious about issues we should be lucky enough to worry about, and not engaged at all on the issues that spell life and death for Western Civilization. They're cherry-picking issues that suit their predisposition - that America is wrong and deserves to die from guilt.

The turn-out predictions are wrong. The polling is wrong.

Standby for fun, Karl Rove is about to steal another election.

UPDATE: Ah well - better keep my day job...

The Army Times has an editorial calling for the removal of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. It is remarkable that the Army Times would publish it, and in light of the fact that they're joining a full chorus of Rumsfeld critics - surely they're right then?

No, actually they're not. Donald Rumsfeld is by any rational standard the most effective Secretary of Defense in living memory and arguably in American history. Quoting Instapundit reader Frank "Varifrank" Martin:

The Military needs transformation, everyone agrees on that, not because the people in it are bad, or that the men and women in it are bad, but its an organization built for a job that's changed tremendously with world events. It hasn't changed, and it wont, without someone forcing that sort of institutional transformation. Its a hard job and its rarely successful.

The Military cannot change itself, no organization can do that. Imagine your company or organization suddenly saying that it needs to change to meet business challenges because that's what the CEO read in a magazine over the weekend. How's that work? You spend months on "Mission statements" and going on useless employee retreats and in the end, the same lame-o fatass managers run the same asininely redundant departments only with different titles and cost centers. How do you get a company to change? You don't change because you want to, you change because the competition forces you to change. You get creamed in a quarterly result, or you get merged with the competition. So what happens to us if our Military gets creamed in combat or "Merged"? In that respect, Rumsfelds transformation doest seem so bad now does it?

The Military cannot change itself. Air Force screams at the Navy, Navy screams at the Army, and everyone screams at the Marines, and the Coast Guard continues to go on unfunded. Congress just sits squirms in its seat every time someone wants to do something simple like close an air force base, Private Industry? Oh sure that will work out fine, no self interest there, right?

So what do you do? You get a man just exactly like Rumsfeld, who's been around forever, knows exactly what works and what doesn't work, knows where all the bodies are buried at every level of the chain of command and you let him loose by putting him at the top.

Rumsfeld is uniquely and highly qualified to do exactly what he is doing. He is an institutional nightmare to the lifetime bureaucrat. Think of Rumsfeld as one of those CEO's that gets hired to turn around a company in bankruptcy court, or like Tom Peters without the PR team. This is not to say that the Military is "bankrupt", but it has lost its way in some places. Do we really need a dozen more Seawolf submarines or should we have 50 more C-17s and C-5s? F-22's or MV-22's?, Airborne Laser Missile Defense or another 10 brigades of Marines and Special Forces? I don't know the answer to those questions, but I know better than to ask Admiral Chuck "Seawolf" Hardmore if we need more Seawolf submarines.

That's why we are lucky to have him, and that's why everyone hates him, because in the end Rumsfeld will be remembered as the greatest change agent of all time.

That is exactly right. Rumsfeld has transformed procurement and doctrine. In doing so, in overriding generals, he has orchestrated two of the most remarkably successful military operations in history - the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq. If not for Rumsfeld, we surely would have a Crusader artillery piece, and we'd still be shipping them into Kuwait to get ready. Instead Hussein should be hanging from a rope any day now. The Taliban were destroyed as an organized military force by a dozen forward-air-controllers skulking around in groups of a few hundred Afghan resistance fighters directing weapons from F-16's and B-52's onto anything the Taliban could maneuver or fire. There was no staging. There was no massive air campaign. The entire operation was a precision strike. It was over in two months. Only because Donald Rumsfeld forced the generals to shelve the doctrine and use what we have to get it done NOW. That pisses people off, particularly when you turn out to be right. The Army Times may want him fired, but he has redefined how the Army will fight in every future engagement. That takes a maverick. Woe be unto you if the only leaders you have are unwilling to ignore the barking dogs - because these are the people you need at the controls when it gets ugly. And it's ugly.

Now we're looking for heads to roll for the "failure" in Iraq. Rumsfeld's accumulated a lot of enemies, and the knives are out. But the failure in Iraq - if that's what we're going to call it - is not a failure of the SecDef. We cannot "win" Iraq with money, weapons, and people flooding over two borders. Iran acts without restraint, doing everything in their power to turn Iraq into chaos. Would you like to win Iraq? Green light decapitation of Iran. If the new batch of leaders turns out to be equally committed to chaos and death, go for another round. Keep going until you get to someone whose world-view does not encompass nuclear Armageddon and a returning Imam to rule the world. It's not smart to let fellows who think like that play with atomic weapons.

So let's say we had the courage to face that threat. We don't - but pretend we did. Who would we have lead the effort? Who better? There's no one close. Rumsfeld is top gun.