Tuesday, July 07, 2009
How can I help?
Where can I send my money to help the bankrupt city of L.A. pay for the uber-important Michael Jackson memorial? I am so tired of focusing on the soldiers we have fighting and dying in two countries. Who among them could moonwalk? Thank Goddess we are finally focusing on someone who brought safety and security to innocent children.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Goodbye California
I liked the original better.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Sith Lord Unmasked
Washington Times:
Even more troubling for the senator is that the proportion of Keystone State residents who say he deserves re-election has declined to 28 percent in June from 40 percent in March.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Suitcase With $134 Billion Puts Dollar on Edge
by William Pesek at Bloomberg.com via Drudge Report:
We messing about at the edge of a cliff. That cliff is the end of fiat currency.
Think about it: These two guys were carrying the gross domestic product of New Zealand or enough for three Beijing Olympics. If economies were for sale, the men could buy Slovakia and Croatia and have plenty left over for Mongolia or Cambodia. Yes, they could have built vacation homes amidst Genghis Khan’s Gobi Desert or the famed Temples of Angkor. Bernard Madoff who?
We messing about at the edge of a cliff. That cliff is the end of fiat currency.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Show me the money
The money supply has been sharply increased in response to the recession, as shown in this chart from the St. Louis Fed.
This chart shows the 20% step-change upward in the money supply, and it is an underestimate of the "new money" available in the economy as we have massive increases in deficit spending and federal assumption of private debt releasing more money not measured in M1.
Since the economic output is flat or shrinking and the amount of currency around to purchase this output has been sharply increased, one would expect prices to rise, but they have not.
What's happening is this, the money the fed has created is not being spent. The so-called "velocity of money" has collapsed. Fear rules, people save, so the increased amount of money has not resulted in increased spending. Prices are falling because no one is buying. This is happening with houses, cars, and until the last few weeks oil.
So does deflation continue, or does the massive money-supply increase result in inflation? There are lot's of economists with predictions running both ways, but we can reach a sound conclusion without a PhD in economics.
The decision to have a inflation or not is a policy decision. Whatever the terminal velocity of money turns out to be, the fed can decide to supply more or less money than is necessary to buy the economic output of the country. So the question is what policy will we pursue? This is not hard to analyze. We have incurred and are incurring massive debt. There are two ways to deal with our years of recklessness, first is to cut government spending, increase taxes, and work our way out. That's not going to happen because we lack the national will for such sacrifice. There's only one alternative. We must have inflation to avoid default on the American debt. The fed cannot allow default. Congress cannot tame spending. We will get inflation, massive inflation, because we must have it to manage our debt.
This chart shows the 20% step-change upward in the money supply, and it is an underestimate of the "new money" available in the economy as we have massive increases in deficit spending and federal assumption of private debt releasing more money not measured in M1.
Since the economic output is flat or shrinking and the amount of currency around to purchase this output has been sharply increased, one would expect prices to rise, but they have not.
What's happening is this, the money the fed has created is not being spent. The so-called "velocity of money" has collapsed. Fear rules, people save, so the increased amount of money has not resulted in increased spending. Prices are falling because no one is buying. This is happening with houses, cars, and until the last few weeks oil.
So does deflation continue, or does the massive money-supply increase result in inflation? There are lot's of economists with predictions running both ways, but we can reach a sound conclusion without a PhD in economics.
The decision to have a inflation or not is a policy decision. Whatever the terminal velocity of money turns out to be, the fed can decide to supply more or less money than is necessary to buy the economic output of the country. So the question is what policy will we pursue? This is not hard to analyze. We have incurred and are incurring massive debt. There are two ways to deal with our years of recklessness, first is to cut government spending, increase taxes, and work our way out. That's not going to happen because we lack the national will for such sacrifice. There's only one alternative. We must have inflation to avoid default on the American debt. The fed cannot allow default. Congress cannot tame spending. We will get inflation, massive inflation, because we must have it to manage our debt.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
North Korea provokes with impunity
from Mark Steyn:
We are building a world in which the wealthiest nations on the planet, from Norway to New Zealand, are all but defenseless, while bankrupt dysfunctional squats go nuclear. Even with inevitable and generous submissions to nuclear blackmail, how long do you think that arrangement will last?
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Kennedy's cancer in remission
Mary Jo Kopechne still dead.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Pelosi vs CIA
Let's end this silliness and get the truth out of the Speaker. Waterboard her.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
BREAKING: DHS Swine Flu Containment Plan
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano rejected calls to close the US-Mexico border in response to the swine flu outbreak. According to the Secretary, the new DHS program to track US military veterans will provide the necessary safeguard against an outbreak of the pandemic in the US.
"The problem does not come from Mexico", claims the secretary. She identified "disaffected veterans" who have been "eating too much bacon after their long stays in Islamic countries" as the source vector.
Yet again, the secretary noted, the men and women serving the country in uniform have proven to be the greatest danger to homeland security. "DHS under the Obama administration will track every returning veteran and test them for viruses and thoughtcrimes. This proactive approach will ensure that the American public is not exposted to either"
"The problem does not come from Mexico", claims the secretary. She identified "disaffected veterans" who have been "eating too much bacon after their long stays in Islamic countries" as the source vector.
Yet again, the secretary noted, the men and women serving the country in uniform have proven to be the greatest danger to homeland security. "DHS under the Obama administration will track every returning veteran and test them for viruses and thoughtcrimes. This proactive approach will ensure that the American public is not exposted to either"
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
The Change
Sunday, December 28, 2008
FX Follies
Few of my life experiments have proven my foolishness as thoroughly as my attempts to trade in the foreign exchange market. While I am reasonably adept at picking companies that will do well, I have proven over a period of many years that my perception of obvious imbalances that must result in currency rate changes are completely wrong.
But I'm a slow-learner. I kept my dormant account open for years without activity. Now, suddenly, I can trade FX. I make money every day. My wife assures me I have not gotten suddenly wise. So what's happening? It's easy now. Currencies are not trading - they're buckling. I'm making money in FX and that is not a good sign. I'm the shoeshine boy giving tips to the currency trader.
I don't think of my recent FX profits as a win, more as a limitation on the loss that's being inflicted on my dollar-denominated assets. That's all well and good, but I am worried. I wonder if we are pushing around the edges of the limits to fiat currency.
But I'm a slow-learner. I kept my dormant account open for years without activity. Now, suddenly, I can trade FX. I make money every day. My wife assures me I have not gotten suddenly wise. So what's happening? It's easy now. Currencies are not trading - they're buckling. I'm making money in FX and that is not a good sign. I'm the shoeshine boy giving tips to the currency trader.
I don't think of my recent FX profits as a win, more as a limitation on the loss that's being inflicted on my dollar-denominated assets. That's all well and good, but I am worried. I wonder if we are pushing around the edges of the limits to fiat currency.
Friday, December 12, 2008
The Hidden Hand
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly
is to fill the world with fools.
-Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Election Depression
I've been depressed by the election for some weeks now. As I watch the wild poll gyrations - I realize it is not the prospect of McCain losing that's depressing me. It's the realization that half the country, more or less, is equally at home with a candidate who despises America as one who has served it, however imperfectly, in unimaginably horrible circumstances.
If half the country believes the US is not special, that we should become just like the Europeans as quickly as possible, then I'm not sure it matters who wins the election. That's what depresses me. American is an idea. If that idea is not held by 50% of the population - what of the greatest nation on Earth?
We need more LEGAL immigration. We need the self-selected Americans.
If half the country believes the US is not special, that we should become just like the Europeans as quickly as possible, then I'm not sure it matters who wins the election. That's what depresses me. American is an idea. If that idea is not held by 50% of the population - what of the greatest nation on Earth?
We need more LEGAL immigration. We need the self-selected Americans.
Friday, October 17, 2008
I have no words
