Sunday, December 28, 2008
FX Follies
Few of my life experiments have proven my foolishness as thoroughly as my attempts to trade in the foreign exchange market. While I am reasonably adept at picking companies that will do well, I have proven over a period of many years that my perception of obvious imbalances that must result in currency rate changes are completely wrong.
But I'm a slow-learner. I kept my dormant account open for years without activity. Now, suddenly, I can trade FX. I make money every day. My wife assures me I have not gotten suddenly wise. So what's happening? It's easy now. Currencies are not trading - they're buckling. I'm making money in FX and that is not a good sign. I'm the shoeshine boy giving tips to the currency trader.
I don't think of my recent FX profits as a win, more as a limitation on the loss that's being inflicted on my dollar-denominated assets. That's all well and good, but I am worried. I wonder if we are pushing around the edges of the limits to fiat currency.
But I'm a slow-learner. I kept my dormant account open for years without activity. Now, suddenly, I can trade FX. I make money every day. My wife assures me I have not gotten suddenly wise. So what's happening? It's easy now. Currencies are not trading - they're buckling. I'm making money in FX and that is not a good sign. I'm the shoeshine boy giving tips to the currency trader.
I don't think of my recent FX profits as a win, more as a limitation on the loss that's being inflicted on my dollar-denominated assets. That's all well and good, but I am worried. I wonder if we are pushing around the edges of the limits to fiat currency.
Friday, December 12, 2008
The Hidden Hand
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly
is to fill the world with fools.
-Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)
